Will your e-bike still function in 10 years?

[JerryB]

I think you'll be here well into your late 90's my friend

Don't know about late 90s......but.....as long as I can ride my ebike.....restore a few carriages....do some camping and have my wife with me......I hope I got lots more years!

 

[NWA Cycling]

Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.

I’m 68. I may not be functioning in 10 years.

 

[heybikerider]

You will have to come back and ask about it in 9 years. Only then will I have the answer to your question.

 

[CrossRoads]

I think the mechanical parts in my direct drive hub-motor systems are built to last more than a decade. I also don't see brushless dc motor technology having much room for improvement. There's another 20% or so of efficiency to squeeze out but that is suplemental. So i don't see an electric motor product comming onto the market that will blow the rest out of the water.

The batteries, however, don't last that long, need to be changed out after too many cycles, and... there are many battery technologies currently in physics laboratories which have the potential to be a major industry disrupter in the comming decade. If someone were to figure out a battery chemistry that can be made for half the cost of lithium-ion or double the energy density, suddenly every lithium - ion battery ever made would become nearly obsolete.

 

[ricknolle]

Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.

I have a 4-year old Specialized ebike with motor and battery built into frame. Our local bike shop has maintained it when the motor mount needed reinforcing. The battery is over 90% original capacity after a few hundred charges. We replace the chain every year and cassette after 10,000 miles.

If the motor fails, I trust my local shop mechanic to get it fixed. If batteries fail, I will turn to a renewal service to replace cells. But ultimately I will buy a new bike by time its 10 years old-like I have done for the past 30 years.

 

[KB's_ebikes]

I have certainly thought about it intensely and have done some research on reliability/longevity of ebikes.

My oldest bicycle is a Trek FX 7.2 hybrid I bought used for $300 back in 2006. I have initially used the hybrid for commuting and more recently used it moderately for group rides. So far I didn't even have to change a tire and our roads are BAD (puncture resistant Bontrager tires seem to last forever). This is the kind of affordable Swiss Army knife-type of ebike that I was looking for.

- I picked one that has 3x7 Shimano gears and is a rare hybrid ebike, meaning I can actually ride it on streets and gravel with smaller tires and without battery. So if all fails, I still have a bicycle.

- The 500W Bafang motor and controller are fool-proof and will probably be around for a decade or longer.

-The weak part really is the battery. I did find the OEM manufacturer and I probably will buy a second and third relatively inexpensive battery at some point (the ebike importer wants more than double for the same battery). I think these batteries, if properly maintained, probably can last 5-10 years depending on the quality of cells. I guess it is similar to laptop batteries, I have seen 10 year old OEM Apple batteries with 1500 cycles, but the Chinese replacements on ebay typically will last only 3-5 years. So lower quality batteries of the cheaper ebikes will probably do a max of 5 years if not abused, and with three of them 10 years should be achievable.

-Another option for the battery problem is to have the cells professionally replaced with high quality cells at some point which should push longevity towards 20 years.

-The rest really is regular bike maintenance stuff depending on usage, such as replacement of tires, crank set, freewheel etc, etc which is probably necessary rather sooner than later with the entry level components of my ebike. On the other hand, the Trek also has entry level Shimano components and replacement of freewheels and replacement of disk brakes with actuated hydraulic brakes etc is really dirt cheap and will improve overall quality and usability.

Overall, I am very optimistic about the longevity of the ebike I have chosen, even though it was very affordable (fortunately 2021 models do sell for 1/3 of the original price 2 years later). Another advantage of not buying the latest and "greatest" is that one can benefit from all the reviews that are out after 2 years which helps to idenity slightly better ebikes aka more bang for the buck.

I do think that, taken all of this into consideration, the quality of cheaper entry level ebikes (originally around $1500) is sufficient for an average user, and that some of these ebikes definitely have the capability to last a long time. Not everyone needs a high quality ebike for $3000-5000, which apparently will have similar or worse battery supply chain problems down the road compared to cheaper ebikes.

 

[addertooth]

There is a thing we are all talking around, without talking about. The more proprietary the bike design is (unique to manufacturer controller, display, battery, motor), the more difficult it will be to get parts a decade down the line. Bike companies arrive, peak, and often fade away in tough times. If your bike uses more "generic" parts, the odds of finding replacements/substitutions a decade from now will be enhanced. Perhaps this is one area where the mass-produced Chinese bikes may have an edge. They tend to use VERY generic parts.

 

[biknut]

There is a thing we are all talking around, without talking about. The more proprietary the bike design is (unique to manufacturer controller, display, battery, motor), the more difficult it will be to get parts a decade down the line. Bike companies arrive, peak, and often fade away in tough times. If your bike uses more "generic" parts, the odds of finding replacements/substitutions a decade from now will be enhanced. Perhaps this is one area where the mass-produced Chinese bikes may have an edge. They tend to use VERY generic parts.

Most inexperienced riders never think about it. This is one of the reasons why I would not consider buying an expensive European legacy manufacturer eBike. 10 years from now most of them will be junk.

 

[Eljimb0]

The more things are regulated the more they will cost. In my humble opinion this is all about the money and nothing to do with safety. I have been hacking lithium batteries and flying model planes with them for 20+ years. (it is not rocket science) Nothing can be made to be idiot-proof. It can't be done. The best way to deal with propriety maintenance only, ..and the obscenely priced replacement parts scene in just avoid it. Stay away from that end of the business. Bicycles are inherently dangerous things. No battery anything makes them even 1% more dangerous.

 

[FrankR]

If I can get 5 seasons out of our ebikes, I think I will call that successful.

I can't expect the electronics to hold up forever. If I am able to replace parts of the electronics when they fail, great. If not, if I already had 5 or so seasons, I am not going to call that a catastrophe.

It Would be nice if there were more standards across the manufacturers - regarding wiring harnesses, connectors, displays, and controllers. I know there are ways to find replacement electronics, but you need quite a bit of knowledge to do that right. Would be nice if some elements were more plug and play.