Will your e-bike still function in 10 years?

Forcing a small company to maintain a 10-year inventory of spare parts would prevent any new, small company from getting into the business at all. You would be left with nothing but the big outfits, who have done so well so far. Yes, that was sarcasm.

As a consumer, most folks are smart enough to not buy a car that runs on corn oil, or uses square tires.

All you have to do is browse some ads, looking for standard connector types, number of wires, etc., which are available on common spare parts. You would very, VERY quickly learn that any battery with more wires than two, one red, one black, is going to be difficult to replace outside of the original maker. You would learn that "communications protocols" are NOT a feature, but a mechanism to Force the consumer into buying parts only from the original manufacturer.

But no, most consumers choose their bike because it is a pretty color, or looks cool, or has radar, calorie calculators, gps, and a bunch of other worthless crap put there for no other reason than to impress idiots.

A mirror is easily replaced. Your bathroom scale is generic. Gps is available on your phone. You need a battery with TWO wires and a STANDARD charging port. A motor with 3 phase and 5 Halls wires. An on/off switch.

10-20 minutes spent on any one of several Ebike simulators will tell you what power level and motor winding you need to do the job you want, under the conditions you have, with the load you represent.

I see people running fat-tire ebikes with full suspension on glass-smooth roads. I see knobby tire mountain bikes with 20+ gears running on absolutely flat ground without anything worthy of being called a "hill" for hundreds of miles, and which have never left pavement for more than a few feet.

Yes, consumers are stupid. How many people have posted here about needing info on the display options, because they never bothered to obtain a manual for the POS they purchased?
 
Aventon has committed to provide parts (and battery) replacement parts for 2 years after model production ceases. But consider that if you buy an eBike from a huge and reputable company such as Aventon, due to the high number of total units sold, the aftermarket will see a profitable opportunity to "plug the gap" with an ample supply of parts and replacement batteries. We have seen that in the auto industry (VW, Jeep, Porsche, BMW, etc). Don't worry so much, just ride!!
 
I considered it. My approach was to do a payoff calculation.

If I commuted on my ebike and did a grocery run or other errand once a week, how long would it take for the eBike to pay for itself?

My assumptions:
  • Commute is 4 mi/day
  • 4 days/week
  • 10 mos/year (I won't ride much in January and February up here in WI)
  • Car gets 15 mpg on such a short commute
  • Gas @ $4.00/gal (it takes premium)
Payoff is about 4 years. Since the pack is detachable, I anticipate I will be able to get one from Aventon for a good while, as they will tend to standardize. If not, I will look into the aftermarket or pack re-building services.

If not, I can sell the bike for cheap or scrap it with no regrets.

Admitted, that's just the commuter bike. The other 3 eBikes, I can't really justify, money-wise.

If I were a bit less well-off, I could happily make do with just that commuter. (Aventon Level.2) Maybe even add a second set of wheels with studded tires fitted for the winter?
 
Vailen said:
Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.
Click to expand...
No, but I don't want it to because consumer electronics get better and cheaper over time, so in 10 years there will be options cheaper and better than what I'm currently riding.
 
Vailen said:
Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.
Click to expand...
Thats why I bought my e-assist kit from my bike maker in Lompac, CA. They have been building recumbent bikes for 30 years. I bought my forever bike from them in 1999 for $2,500. Had 17,000 miles on it when I added the e-assist kit.
I got my class 3 ekit 3 years ago for $1,200. And their ekit is from a long time kit builder out of Philly, ebikekit.com. So my E-assist kit won’t likely go out of date or not have repair parts, because they have sold thousands of their kits. They do upgrade their tech as needed, with components that are backwards compatible. The only risk I see for me, is if my 36 volt battery was no longer available in 10 years, if it should fail. They are now selling 48 volt systems as their standard kit. But I expect the technology to change enough in 10 that I might want to upgrade some components on my kit, as they will sell you upgraded components. They have excellent telephone tech support too!

I paid more than you would from Amazon. But I expect my e-assist kit to last for at least another 10 years. At which point I will likely go to an e-trike, as I will be 80 years old then.

I can move my ekit from one bike to another if desired. Last year I got a used 20 year old full suspension recumbent for $300 and moved the ekit to that bike. So I could buy a used trike and move the ekit to it.
 
Instead of worrying if a company will be around in the future to supply parts, a better idea is to choose a bike that you can rebuild using newer upgraded aftermarket parts. Over the years I've upgraded almost every part on my bike. The only original parts are the frame, and VBoxx pedal transmission. Everything else has been replaced over time. The result is my bike is better in every way now than new.
www.jpg
 
I would like to thank everyone for replying to this thread. It was an education read.
I bought my first ebike in 2016, an Raleigh Tekoa. By 2019 I needed a new battery, which Raleigh no longer made the battery for this bike. Thanks to these forums I was able to rig a after-market battery to the bike andeven if doesn'tlook good, it works great.
I did buy a new ebike, a step-through, because the Tekoa was getting taller or I am getting sharter. (LOL) It a bike that had dual batteries. One of the batteries is a shark style battery, that I can relace with an after-market one. I looked at replacing the moter's controllor with an external controllor, like for a rear hub motor.
Owning an ebike is an educational experience.
 
I bought two Merge folding ebike's when they were clearance at $700. I mostly ride mine without the battery as it is also just a nice folding bike when you leave the battery at home. So I basically have two batteries for my wife's Merge. They have bottom bracket motors which I suspect will not wear out and the hubs, sprockets and brakes are all normal bike stuff. So worst case is I end up with two nice folding bikes when the batteries go south but by then there may be an alternative battery I can wire it, but most likely not integral with the frame like the OEM one.

Merge Pic.jpeg
 
Easton Electric Bikes said:
Aventon has committed to provide parts (and battery) replacement parts for 2 years after model production ceases. But consider that if you buy an eBike from a huge and reputable company such as Aventon, due to the high number of total units sold, the aftermarket will see a profitable opportunity to "plug the gap" with an ample supply of parts and replacement batteries. We have seen that in the auto industry (VW, Jeep, Porsche, BMW, etc). Don't worry so much, just ride!!
Click to expand...

I sincerely hope you are right. Right now, there's no way to be sure. Eventually, we will be able to buy new motors and batteries that can fit into almost any bike frame & bottom bracket as easily as finding a new battery for your car, which is available from a multitude of manufacturers. The big question is: how many years before we see motors and batteries as plentiful as standard bike parts that can accommodate any bike frame or bottom bracket? It's impossible to predict.

One of the purposes of starting this thread is to raise awareness of the current limitations of a bike frame specifically made for a motor (and possibly the battery as well). I am hoping people reading this thread improve their understanding of the investment they are making in an e-bike, rather than buying an e-bike blindly or impulsively. For me, the responses on this thread have been really helpful.
 
My oldest car in the driveway is 33 years old (I drove it to work today), my newest is 18 years old (2005 Lotus Elise). I am not afraid to turn a wrench.
In the garage is a mill, lathe, hydraulic press, two welders (MIG, TIG, Stick, Plasma). There is also a host of electronic test tools (multiple Fluke meters, dual trace digital scope, etc).

Nothing stays stock in this household. I look at everything I buy and say: "It is good, but it could be better".

Will my eBikes still be working in a decade? Yes, provided they still have a use in my life.
Chances are, they will likely they will be better ten years from now, than they are today.
Polymath Engineers are scary people. I am a firm believer that anyone can learn a skill, provided they are willing to
work at it.
 
I have replied to this thread before but wanted to add my KHS fat bike that had a BBSHD installed on it by me has now been operating for 9 years. In that time I replaced one 48V battery for better range, added 4.8" 45 north knobby tires for winter use. Also 1 chain replaced before it stretched to much and one freehub. So 10 years is very doable plus a few more.
 
Vailen said:
Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.
Click to expand...
Heck, an analog bike won’t function in 10 years without major expenditures, so, no, you will be buying a new ebike more often than that.
 
I see a HUGE business opportunity here. Maybe that, as ebikes market will ramp up there will be plenty of opportunities to find spares and modular batteries replacement made by third parties for older models. Also hope in some form of standardisation in replaceable parts like batteries, as already happening with tires, cables, gears, chains, etc.
 
pagheca said:
I see a HUGE business opportunity here. Maybe that, as ebikes market will ramp up there will be plenty of opportunities to find spares and modular batteries replacement made by third parties for older models. Also hope in some form of standardisation in replaceable parts like batteries, as already happening with tires, cables, gears, chains, etc.
Click to expand...
Yeah I think there is place in NY that started a shop like that. They work on & refurbish older ebikes. Might be one in Cali too.
 
that average doesn't take in account the group of people using a bicycle or doing sports... :cool:

p.s. as a male Italian, my life expectancy should be 82, but I don't think that applies to expats. I think it's a mix of genetics, access to health, habits, etc.
 

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