Will your e-bike still function in 10 years?

[Vailen]

Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.

 

[DieselTech]

I recently pre-ordered a ebike, more moped or fat bike style. It's got a standard bottom bracket & hub motors.

I thought about replacement parts, down the road, figure I would buy aftermarket parts as parts fail.

The batterys are shark style frame mounted packs, again aftermarket when they fail. Or have them rebuilt at batterys plus+.

I'm hoping to get 5 years out of the factory batterys & figure they have served their life span.

This will be my 1st real ebike, soo I'm not sure what expect as in battery life & motor life.

 

[fabbrisd]

I understand your "thinking" - which starts with "the MTB I have owned for 27yrs" - that would be 1995-1996 - correct ?

My favorite MTB I have is my Cannondale I bought in 1990 that I rode from Germany-thru Austria - to Budapest.

My oldest Mercedes range from a 1986 Mercedes 190E - 1991 Mercedes AMG 560SEC - and my 1995 S320 sedan.

I have multiple eBike's and I purchase a "new" eBike when something pop's up that is a great value (to me) or offers new tech (for me)..

My ebikes range in purchase price $800 - $3200.

I also have multiple eScooters to - same deal if I find a great value (to me) or new tech (for me) I buy it. My eScooter's range in purchase price from $250-$14,000.

1. Battery life is dependent on 2-things - (1) having a quality charger that has settable charge limits (example Charge-To-80%) and (2) battery life is not spec'd in terms of month's/yrs - it is spec'd by total# of charge cycles

2. Frankly - each owner has his/or-her-own different parameters to estimate Enjoyment from their eBike.

To each his own !

 

[pagheca]

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this?

Yes, I did, but I am more concerned if *I* will be still functioning in 10 years...

joking aside, I suspect that things will soon go the same way as with so many other consumer items: planned obsolescence, or at least a tendency to come up with a new version that has that "extraordinary" and "indispensable" innovation that makes it "completely different" from the one you already have (and of which, unfortunately, the very spare you need is no more available...).

That's a problem. I have a tendency to buy one thing of everything, and look for it to be as flexible as possible: one phone at a time (lasting until it fails), one computer at a time (two identical ones actually, to have redundancy in case of sudden failure), an ebike (a Trek Powerfly 7 FS, paid 4500 euros and up), and a bicycle lasted from 1999 to 2019, so exactly 20 years, and that has been around the world several times... behind my international relocations (6 in all).

On the other hand, it is highly likely that ebikes will become better in the future: more range (a problem I feel quite a bit, by the way), less weight, better stability, more useful apps. So even if it doesn't happen, very few will be able to resist the market siren.

 

[HumanPerson]

On the 11th of this month we had a torrential downpour and i had to ride my black bike in it for 7 miles.
I forgot to covert the controller vent and forgot the battery side panel so i rode in crazy downpour sheets of rain 7 miles and it made it home

The next day i noticed the throttle sort of hesitant so i opened it up and cleaned it then sprayed ACF-50 on it and all good to go another hurricane

That's the thing...most people will not open up a controller and clean it then ACF-50 it and liek my throttle as well...everything gets that treatment..everything.

 

[biknut]

I bought my Stealth Bomber in 2013 for $9995 shipped. It has about 24,000 miles on it now. A good bike will last forever as long as you can find replacement parts.

 

[m@Robertson]

Plain and simple, ebikes introduce a lifespan limit to an ebike that did not exist before. You can expect *something* to require replacement and thats just the nature of this new bicycle-shaped-but-not-a-bicycle beast.

Its not just motor and battery that are problematic. Your controller counts here. Also the throttle and PAS sensor. On the first few years of Sondors Original fat bikes, the throttles used a black HIGO plug because extra wires were needed to carry data for the integrated battery level display. Nowadays those throttles are gone but to replace a throttle you need one with the black plug, which is now available from only one vendor I know of - for $30 rather than the usual $10 for a yellow Bafang-compatible unit. Likewise on those bikes, the yellow HIGO plug on the PAS sensor had its gender reversed from the norm - reportedly so noobies would not mistake it for a Bafang-compatible throttle plug and try to connect one there. The red HIGOs needed for those controllers' brake cutoffs fortunately have adapters on the market switching them to the generic yellow, thanks to the fact that Magura decided to use red too.

I have two Bullitt cargo bikes, which I built into ebikes frame-up using frame kits and my own parts. Now, the manufacturer sells complete bikes, and complete ebikes. The earliest models use a gen1 Shimano motor ecosystem that is built into a proprietary frame bracket. The bikes are REALLY expensive at around 8 grand a pop. Well, a lot of small companies and contractors bought them for rolling delivery and service bikes, and everything went great until the motors started wearing out, thanks to what became known as a weakness in the platform that could not be repaired. Bikes were warrantied and repaired ... until Shimano EOL'd the motor and stopped making the motors... and the parts for the motors. Also in their corporate wisdom, two separate generations of follow-on motors both individually used different bolt patterns so its not possible to replace your dead motor on your 8000 Euro bike. Unless you find one on the open market, and the few people who have them know what they have. Market rates last I heard were 1000 Euro per motor.

I've seen small businesses with several of these bikes have to write them off years before the rest of the bike is ready for retirement, and start over.

Me, my Bullitts use a motor that I can, if it dies, pull off and replace with whatever I feel is going to work for me in the future. I'd rather not do that and they are nicely durable (with lots of aftermarket parts available from 3rd parties), but I will decide if my bike is ready for the scrap heap, not whoever made my motor or battery. But in keeping with the subject of the thread... if I do live a long life, and I keep riding, despite the fact maybe I chose wisely on the motor insofar as longevity is concerned... my ebike will never live on the road for decades without major electrical parts replacement.

 

[arthurdent18610]

Hello everyone. I have been studying e-bikes for a month now. I have a question I am hoping to discuss with current or future e-bike owners. Has anyone wondered whether their investment in an e-bike will still be viable after 10 years? In other words, will the motor and battery you purchased as part of the bike still be available long after the bike you purchased has been discontinued?

I held onto my last MTB for 27 years. Although it was outdated, I could still ride, and replacement bike parts are widely available. This availability also applies to e-bikes. Parts like cranks, cassettes, grips, handlebars, front suspension, etc., are all easy to find. However, 2 components on an e-bike may not be available in the distant future: the motor and the battery.

Batteries that are mounted inside the frame of any manufacturer’s bike is proprietary. Therefore, after the bike is discontinued, how long can you depend on the manufacturer to continue making the specific battery you need to mount inside the frame? I have confirmed that some manufacturers already stopped making the in-frame battery for multiple models in their line of e-bikes that have been discontinued. Once they deplete their stock of batteries, those owners will not be able to replace their battery once it fails, and batteries have a finite lifespan.

Motors that require specially designed bike frames for mounting, like the Bafang M620, is even more problematic. What happens when the M620 is discontinued, and parts become hard to find? Unless you are really good at using an engineering CAD program, designing the replacement parts yourself, and e-mail the files to a machine shop that will make them for you (which will not be cheap), then the very expensive e-bike you purchased long ago has become completely useless. Remember that these bike frames do not have traditional bottom brackets where you can mount cranks and pedals. Rather, when you remove the motor, you essentially have a giant hole, and no other motor could be mounted in its place.

The DIY community has an advantage: they convert their analog bikes into e-bikes. The battery is mounted outside the frame. If the motor or battery fails, they find parts and repair their motors as needed and the battery is much more easily replaced. Many of these motors, like the Bafang BBSHD or the CYC X1 Pro, can be connected to any battery as long as the watts/volts/amps specifications are compatible. These motors fit inside a standard bottom bracket found in any analog bike. But most people who purchase e-bikes do not go this route. Rather, they just buy a complete e-bike with an integrated motor and battery.

If you buy a cheaper e-bike, let’s say between $1,000 and $2,000, then your investment may seem more reasonable. But multiply that by purchasing another e-bike for your spouse and children, then the thought of going through this again just because of a motor or battery failure after 5 or 10 years seems ridiculous. (Buying a new e-bike for your child because they have grown up and are now into mountain biking vs casual riding is reasonable.) Even worse, for people who want to invest in a more advanced e-bike that costs more than $4,000, and your motor and/or battery needs replacing but none are available after 10 years, then the initial investment you made becomes much more problematic. Unless I win Powerball, I would not want to spend another $4,000 a decade later.

My question is: has anyone in this community ever consider this? Have you ever thought about the cost of replacing your entire e-bike after a decade due the company not supporting the motor and/or battery since the model you bought has been discontinued? How do you feel about this new limitation that essentially did not exist when we purchased analog bikes? I am very interested in hearing your opinions.

My cyclotricity stealth 250/1000w is a 2015/6 model, the original battery lasted six yrs. I replaced the 48v 16ah with a Greenlance 48v 17.5ah. I'm still running the original rear hub & recently I bought a spare wheel from cyclotricity for £150. I'm 60 in April so if it lasts me another 8 yrs I'll be doing all right. I also have a fat bike, though that's one bike I wouldn't want to cycle without the twin motors help. My stealth could easily be converted back into a normal bike, it just requires a rear wheel.

 

[pagheca]

interesting reading: https://electrek.co/2023/08/13/why-e-bike-companies-dont-want-right-of-repair/

 

[DieselTech]

interesting reading: https://electrek.co/2023/08/13/why-e-bike-companies-dont-want-right-of-repair/

Yeah I was reading that in New York they banned all ebikes that are not UL Listed. Due to increased fire hazards.

 

[pagheca]

I have mixed feelings about this.

We have to get used to the fact that the world is getting more and more complicated. This gives advantages, aka the possibility for me, 60+ years old, to pedal up steep mountains every time I wish for a few cents of energy, but of course it takes away the possibility for me to easily repair or update my bike as I used to do a few years ago with a few cheap tools.

 

[pagheca]

to say: my father told me that when he was a young boy he built himself a bicycle by welding water pipes to make the frame. Once skis were wooden boards tied with a rope to the feet, I heard this from the old owner of a hut in the Dolomites, the same old man who told me that he took his wife to give birth to his first son in the hospital at the bottom of the valley, in the middle of winter, from the hut he ran, making her sit on a chair tied on his shoulders, since the roads were blocked. That son has the same age like me, we are not talking about the Cenozoic... Who would do such a thing today?

So this is an ongoing process rather than a quantum leap. Technology gives us more options, but remove some other freedom.

 

[Vailen]

Yeah I was reading that in New York they banned all ebikes that are not UL Listed. Due to increased fire hazards.

New York has banned the sale of e-bikes that are not UL listed. Many states are following New York's example and introducing legislation. We should expect all 50 states to pass similar laws in the near future.

 

[Vailen]

interesting reading: https://electrek.co/2023/08/13/why-e-bike-companies-dont-want-right-of-repair/

I can understand why we do not want people to repair batteries. Replacing them is fine, but repairing them? That's a recipe for disaster. The motor, on the other hand, can be repaired. The problem with this law is that they use a "one size fits all" approach, either including or excluding specific items in the list. This renders the law easier to understand and interpret, but unable to distinguish between a bike battery and a bike motor.

Think about our gas-powered cars we drive. People have been fixing they own cars for decades, and these machines are far more complicated than an e-bike. When it comes to the car's battery, we never repair it - we replace it. Whether we have a battery that contains acid or one that contains lithium cells, replacing it and properly disposing the old battery is what's important.

A law prohibiting people from repairing the batteries (specifically) on their e-bikes makes more sense. Everything else on an e-bike can be repaired by the owner using aftermarket parts including the motor, just as owners have been repairing their own motorcycles and scooters for decades. What we never do is "repair" a battery on a gas-powered motorcycle or an electric motorcycle. The "repair" actually means replacing the battery.

At this point in time, we are in the early stages of the e-bike revolution that is changing societies worldwide, and Europe is much further along the maturity curve than the US. This new industry needs to go through its growing pains, including writing new legislation and rewriting legislation as we learn by experience. In another generation, I believe we will have 3rd parties make batteries for older e-bikes that are still in use even though the original manufacturer stopped making them. When that time comes, we will simply replace the battery just as easily as we changed our mobile phone's battery a long time ago (fortunately that's coming back in a few years). But again, that's replacing a battery, not repairing it.

 

[ElHegpah]

I've already made 10 years. Currently on my second battery.

Can still replace every part on the bike. NO PROPRIETARY PARTS.

Keep the system simple. No Radar. No Calorie Counter. No App. Display has two buttons and 7 LEDs. Still available.

Small, simple controller is fully potted and mounted for good airflow. Still available.

Waterproofing done by me. Special attention paid to charging port. Throttle only component affected by heavy rain. Dries out just fine.

No pedelec sensor. No ebrakes. Essentials only.

Motor carefully spec'd to do the job. Researched heavily for lack of breakage reports. Motor still available.

Can purchase several motors compatible with my controller, several controllers compatible with my motor, several displays compatible with my controller. Battery totally generic, Need red and black to the controller, nothing else. No special mount or connectors required.

There will be some replacement in-frame batteries produced, but for the vast majority of custom designs, there are just not enough of them to justify a production run. To those customers whose ebike makers included proprietary electronics specifically to prevent repair or generic replacement, those folks will be SOL.

 

[pagheca]

I think you have a great interest in the field, ElHegpah, a good technical knowledge and some time and tools to dedicate to that. And I respect all that. But for the average user, alias the vast majority, this is not viable, without considering that in many countries a self-built e-bike could not even ride (although it is difficult for the authorities to check you, that's true).

 

[ElHegpah]

People have built their own ebikes in nearly every country in the world. Most places, don't ride like an idiot, they will leave you alone. The EU is a bit stricter to build legally, but get a limited pedelec system, you are good to go.

You are currently having issues getting a replacement battery, right? Looks like plenty of frame triangle space, almost certainly a water-bottle mount, lots of generic batteries will fit and SHOULD connect. If they DO NOT connect, that means the maker you choose, decided to go out of their way, to PREVENT you from using an aftermarket replacement battery. This is VERY easy to detect, and to avoid.

Just browse a bunch of kits on Amazon or whatever, and LOOK AT the connectors and mounting types. Very quickly, you will see what is common and widespread, and what is rare and hard to find.

Spend some time with a few simulators, and again you can very quickly get a handle on the variety of performance specs, along with weights, range expected, and cost.

Only tools needed were a crescent wrench and a couple screwdrivers. Oh, and some Windex to get the hand grip off. Have to tell that story sometime.

Also do some reading and notice how many companies are brand-new, or have not EVER offered the same model of ebike for more than 2-3 years. Look at reports of warranty claims, how they are handled, what tech support seems like, etc. Notice what brands are CLEARLY paying for puff-piece posts from supposed "happy customers".

Most folks just choose the one with pretty colors. No thought process at all.

 

[pagheca]

yes, I appreciate your point of view.

Except that, for work related reasons I live in a small island in the Atlantic that while being part of Spain, is not part of the EU Common market area. This means that Amazon and most of the internet providers do not ship here (yep: you fill the order and then an annoying message appears saying that they do not deliver to this address - same with most sellers on ebay etc.). There are various workarounds for mechanical parts, ok, but custom charges any privately imported item with heavy import fees (while asking you to pay some IGIC rather than VAT...), plus the cost of the custom agent to take care of it - a shame! At the end I purchased a Trek Powerfly 7 because I considered it the best solution among the few ebikes quickly available on the market in the island (including maintenance).

Moreover, I have a pretty demanding job, live in a rented home with no space to build a proper lab, relocated all over the world all my adult life (aka, I can't buy too many items as soon I may have to relocate again), and... to be honest I want just to enjoy some time riding my ebike in the weekend, or using as a mean of transport for short travel close to my home, without spending too much time thinking about how to build an ebike. IF after 10 years - who knows where I will be by then? - I will not be able to repair it... fair enough, I will buy a new one.

I don't say that my needs are common, but the world is complicated. What suits you - or me - may not suit others. Don't suit the person with limited technical abilities (most of them!), the person in his thirty busy with kids, etc. In many EU countries most of the people ride an ebike not for fun, but just as a everyday mean of transport, consider it "just another utility" and have no time or will to spend building or repairing his/her bicycles. The issue raised by @Vailen in this thread applies to most of them, I'm afraid.

 

[ElHegpah]

Mr Vailen is still in the early stages of his learning process, but he is progressing well.

The battery, on an ebike, is usually the single biggest expense. Headway is gone now, SFAIK, but they were an early example of a consumer-constructed and maintained battery. Take a look at the N.E.S.E. kits, a more modern version a similar concept. User-constructed, User-designed, User chooses the volts, the amps, the cell-type, the brand and model, the BMS, and when the cells wear out, the user can easily replace just the cells, not the case, the BMS, the wiring, the connectors, all that can be re-used. Or upgrade the BMS with customizable limits and balancing points, bluetooth communication, an app, and whatever else you want. No soldering, No welding, no special tools or skills needed. Just decide what you want and order the parts, and your next battery is one-half the cost.

I have followed the maker's construction and testing methods for many years. One of the tests was to put an entire battery on a load with a meter, while mounted in what looked like an industrial paint-shaker. No Variation in power output.

I spend very little time on repairs, construction time was minimal. Choosing the right components, to do the job I wanted done, within the limits I set, is the key.

If you want to go near 30 mph, then buy a motor which will do that. Don't buy a 22 mph motor and then complain that some External Force, some Higher Authority, has exerted its power and prevented you from getting what you want, you just chose the wrong motor. This is from a recent thread wherein a user did just exactly that. How fast, how far, how heavy, how high your hills, and how much dollars. Its a simple formula. Assign priorities to each category.

 

[Vailen]

Take a look at the N.E.S.E. kits, a more modern version a similar concept. User-constructed, User-designed, User chooses the volts, the amps, the cell-type, the brand and model, the BMS, and when the cells wear out, the user can easily replace just the cells, not the case, the BMS, the wiring, the connectors, all that can be re-used. Or upgrade the BMS with customizable limits and balancing points, bluetooth communication, an app, and whatever else you want. No soldering, No welding, no special tools or skills needed. Just decide what you want and order the parts, and your next battery is one-half the cost.

What you describe requires above average knowledge of electronics. Is your education in engineering? Or are you a person who is adept at learning the subtle but complicated details of electronics? In either case, I applaud you. I really admire people who take the time to build something almost from scratch.

Unfortunately, most people do not have an engineering background, or their ability to learn electronics at that level takes considerably more time and effort for the average person - time they probably do not have. Also remember that while learning how to construct something like a battery, you will make mistakes and those mistakes incur additional costs.

For example, I once built my own backyard deck. I thought I was being clever by designing the kit myself using inexpensive software. While using a gas-powered excavator to dig holes 3 feet deep for the pillars of concrete used for the foundation, I did not realize that 2 of the pillars were not level with the other 4 and forgot to install a steel shim to raise the height by more than 5 degrees. I ended up with a lopsided deck that I had to take apart and build again. When I added all of the additional cost I incurred, I was better off hiring a professional. LOL!

My point is, the DIY e-bike market needs simpler solutions to thrive. If we all had to make batteries from scratch, I do not think we would have a DIY market at all - especially when new state laws require UL certified batteries. The process of achieving that certification requires a manufacturer to send out a random sample of their batteries to a third party to be tested and all submitted batteries must pass their tests. A DIYer building a battery for their own e-bike will make one or two batteries at most, which is not enough to send out for testing, and the cost for the testing is very high - more than the cost of a complete e-bike.

Does the maker in your prior post help you create UL certified batteries? If not, then no one should use them. The state law in NY will eventually be passed in all 50 states.

Although the battery is the most expensive component of an e-bike, it is also the most dangerous. I would not encourage anyone to build their own nor should we encourage anyone to do so. I would rather see someone build their own motor or any other parts of an e-bike, but not the battery. In my opinion, leave battery construction to the professionals.