Will eBikes bring about the decline of rear derailleurs & cassettes?

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ninjichor

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I was looking forward to motors with integrated transmission, and a new contender just made itself known, joining at least two others:

mubia prototype.jpg


mubia prototype gear shifter.jpg

The Mubea prototype:

ebike-mtb.com

Mubea E-Mobility: an automotive supplier wants to stir up the bike industry

Have you ever heard of Mubea E-Mobility? No? Well don’t be surprised. The automotive supplier hasn’t been active in the cycling sector yet and is only just presenting two radical concept bikes for the first time at this year’s Eurobike Media Days. We got a little closer to see what their unusual...
ebike-mtb.com ebike-mtb.com

Eager to see all the trade-offs being minimized, to the point these systems become rational choices over normal bikes. I don't doubt people are worried about resistance when pedaled without battery power.
 
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nuvinci cvt hubs have existed for some years... they didnt threaten cassettes before and they wont do it now
 
Added weight, complexity, and friction. Sounds like an e-bike thing :p

If electric bike innovation results in better tech for bicycles I'll take it but I don't think this is it.
 
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The Pinion gearbox is the biggest threat to the rear derailleur on mountain bikes so far and has nothing to do with e-bikes. Mind you by biggest I am not saying the rear derailleur has anything to be particularly worried about yet. But, continued development of the Pinion and similar systems have a shot at dethroning the derailleur...one day.
 
48V revolution 48V prime ebike motors.jpg


I imagine this being paired with "high pivot" bike, which are now coming to trail/enduro bikes (e.g. Forbidden Bike Co - Druid, Deviate - Guide).
 
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The revonte website made me think of flying cars; I actually think that I’ll see a flying car before that hits the market.
 
Integrated transmissions for road commuting will allow the replacement of chains with driveshafts. I would love a 6 speed FS class 3 with an enclosed driveshaft and shock absorbers instead of seatstays for running errands and replacing an ICE or public transit for local trips.
 
I have no doubt that on higher end road ebikes used for commuting and general transportation, that integrated motors and transmissions with belt drives will become more prevelant than derailleurs. Cheap ebikes will continue to have hub motors.

The weight and cost will have to come down for them to become mainstream on 250w emtbs, but I could see it. For 750w emtbs, it'll almost be mandatory since drivetrains won't last long with that much more torque, drivetrain wear is already an issue with 250w ebikes.

For bikes, an integrated transmission would have to become much, much lighter to take over. Not to mention more efficient. I'd love to see it happen, but physics is a tough master.
 
"drivetrain wear is already an issue with 250w ebikes."

There is not a single eMTB made that is just 250w. That would be a 24v system run at 10.5A. The EU spec bikes are 36v @ 15A (minimum) which is 540w (max). The wattage limit is elastic and 250w is just a number used to "adhere" to regulations.

Drivetrain wear is due more to rider error/incompetence. My 780w kit bike has a thousand miles on it's cheap, no name narrow wide offset chainring/Sunrace/KMC/X9 drive train with no end in sight.

Panasonic makes a 2spd mid drive:

https://eu.industrial.panasonic.com/...16_english.pdf

Still requires more gears and acts more like a double chainring however.
 
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